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Tuesday, July 23, 2024

We must win. Ukraine will win

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Brussels/London (16/6 – 33.33) The defeat of the Russian Federation is a foregone conclusion. It is a reality. It is a must. Victory for Ukraine is non-negotiable. It is an absolute necessity. As ironclad as Brussels, London, Berlin or Washington. As ironclad as the Normandy battlefield, Waterloo, Verdun, or many other spots on the planet.

We, the ones living in this generation that saw the war erupted right in front of our eyes, owe it to the young men and women in the Ukraine who gave their lives for this conviction. An excessive number of sceptics advocate for surrender. We have succumbed to the mindset of defeatism. Europe cannot tolerate this culture of apparent defeat.

It seems that the Europeans have lost their capability to win wars. The military leaders are merely overweight theorists. Our economies are still gearing towards a situation of a so-so war. Our politicians are populists, administrative pencil-pushers. The context of war has given way to fears.

We Are At War!

It is the reality in the European Union that we are at war. The French belief of “if you are in combat, you better pray that you have an American on your side” does not hold true any longer.

Americans are the fair-weather friends; and what looks like it, now NATO is more than the US. Regardless of the internal squabbles of political morons or not.

Here is where the grievance from Putin takes hold. Stability talks, sudden withdrawal from Afghanistan walks. It gotten under the skin of Putin. And he says so. The consequence: 13 Marines dead and millions of Afghans living under Taliban rule again.

But NATO has an obligation to respond if Article 5 is called. Like it or not. Before Trump withdrawal from NATO happens, he must convince the U.S. congress to withdraw from a treaty agreement. And that’s a long way off. So, we must calm ourselves and Keep Buggering On, a phrase made famous by Sir Winston Churchill.

Expert assured the U.S. president can’t do anything, realistically that is likely, however realpolitik will determine the future. We must beat the Russians. Even if it irks us that the investment is massive. Defense is not free, neither it is for the Ukrainians. Many of U.S. compatriots are complete anti-Ukraine. A common misperception in the current political climate of rumours and counter-rumours. An anti-Ukrainian policy has swept the Americans off their feet.

In the interwar years we seen similar trends. Strong anti-European, pro-Hitler movements. Today, it’s the same. The Republican base is completely mesmerized by the idea Russia is not “their” war. Nothing further holds true. Its idiotic, it really is, notion that Russia is not their enemy coming from the academic side of the school of international affairs has its roots in the interwar period.

President Woodrow Wilson was able to navigate neutrality in World War I for about three years, and to win 1916 re-election with the slogan “He kept us out of war.” The neutrality policy was supported by the tradition of shunning foreign entanglements, and by the large population of immigrants from Europe with divided loyalties in the conflict.

Senator Hiram Johnson, of California, denounced the League of Nations as a “gigantic war trust.”. Most of the sentiment bore a reassertion of nativist and inward-looking policy. By the summer of 1940, France suffered a stunning defeat by Germans, and Britain was the only democratic enemy of Germany. In the summer of 1940, 67% of Americans believed that a German-Italian victory would endanger the United States, that if such an event occurred 88% supported “arm[ing] to the teeth at any expense to be prepared for any trouble”, and that 71% favoured “the immediate adoption of compulsory military training for all young men”.

Life wrote that the survey showed “the emergence of a majority attitude very different from that of six or even three months ago”. A same defeatist culture has entered the political discourse in Europe and the United States in 2024.

Trump, a transnational short term, “Mr. Fix-It” has negotiated a 2% GDP increase for defense spending. However, his political rhetoric will be put in a firm place by the boys with the big pants, like Putin, President Xi from China, or others. Polls indicate growing impatience among Americans with the war in Ukraine with 2023 polls showing just 17% of Americans think their country is “not doing enough” to support Ukraine. This percentage is the lowest since the war began. Trump is riding high on this public sentiment.

After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Republican Party has been divided on Ukraine’s aid, believing that it is not in the interests of the United States to get involved in a “proxy war” against Russia. Former President Donald Trump has called on the United States to push for peace talks rather than continue to support Ukraine.

Who lies better?

Remember the phrase “Not one inch” expansion eastwards? Currently whenever the Russian Federation needs a bogeyman it blames the United States. But after examining the historical facts the situation is more complicated.

It is fact in 2001 Vladimir Putin spoke in the German Bundestag and consider joining NATO. But the slippery slope was the invasion of Iraq. For the Russians this was the red line not to be crossed. But it was.

Munich followed and the rest is the proverbial history. The Lithuanian prime minister Kalla was quoting Soviet-time foreign minister Andrei Gromyko, and she noted that he had said negotiation tactics of the Soviet Union involved three things.

“First, demand the maximum,” she said. “Do not ask, but demand something that has never been yours. “Second, present ultimatums. “And third, do not give up one inch in negotiations because there will always be people in the West who will offer you something. “And then in the end you will have one third or even half of something you didn’t have before. So, we have to keep that in mind all the time.”

The peace offer, if we like to call it as such, from Vladimir Putin instructing senior diplomats on June 14, 2024, in Moscow speaks from conditions. And here is where it gets tricky. Demanding the NATO to halt the Ukraine to join will be rejected. And, demanding now four (4), not two (2) provinces will be equally dead in the water.

Nobody has yet asked the hard question. Why does Russia need this land? Creating a security buffer can be done on the inside your own territory. Hence the narrative the Kremlin put out is short lived. Truth be told, Moscow was hoping to annex the rich pickings of the Ukraine. Coal, water, “black soil” rich on minerals are just some of the resources in the region that was fought over already by the Germans.

We Must Win!

It is therefore clear; we must adopt a culture of winning. It is costly, but we must win. Many young men and woman will be laid to rest for the concept of defending their land. But the Ukraine Must Win.

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